Rethinking long-term care policy in the face of EU demographic shifts

Expected Outcome

Projects should contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Evaluate the effectiveness and resilience of existing long term-care (LTC) policies at national and regional levels.
• Provide policy makers with scientific knowledge and data for evidence-informed policies to address the rising demand for affordable, accessible and high-quality long-term care, with the focus on efficient use of resources, including human, financial and technological.
• Propose new policy solutions to address rising long-term care needs and to ensure smooth (in)formal care transitions, including from the perspective of active and healthy ageing policies and the development of integrated care service provision at local level.

Scope

In the EU, the number of people with long-term care needs is projected to increase in the future. In 2070, this number is expected to be 21% higher than in 2020.This increase is largely due to the acceleration of population ageing and also relates to higher needs for palliative care. At the same time, many Member States already struggle to meet all the long-term care needs now due to workforce shortages, which are likely to aggravate in future as the long-term care workforce is itself ageing and the sector is not attractive due to difficult working conditions, limited career development pathways and low professional standards.

Scientific evidence from research and innovation (including from SSH disciplines) is needed to help address the increasing demand for long-term care in the EU in the context of shrinking labour resources and increasing pressures on public and private budgets.

In line with the European Care Strategy and complementing the activities of the European Partnership on Transforming Health and Care Systems[1], proposals should:

• evaluate the effectiveness of existing national/regional long-term care policies in terms of meeting the current long-term care needs through sufficient and adequately skilled long-term care workers, making formal long-term care affordable, accessible and of high quality; in that respect, evaluate the role of integrated care and the interplay of long-term care and other social services;
• develop robust methodologies to model projections until 2070, for long-term care needs and supply including in terms of workforce and types of services, and corresponding public funding needs for at least 15 EU Member States; quantify the cost of non-action in terms of impact on unmet LTC needs, health and well-being outcomes, and missed opportunities for economic returns;
• identify and analyse innovative policy mixes, including based on social innovation, to address long-term care needs and long-term care supply challenges, with available and/or new public/private resources, including by tapping into the potential of digitalisation and new technologies. Aspects for consideration may include addressing workforce and skills shortages by increasing the attractiveness of the long-term care sector through improved working conditions and social protection of the long-term care workforce; the deployment of digital solutions including AI-based; investigating the cost-effectiveness in the use of public budgets for health and social care and the role of private funding in the sector.

Applicants are encouraged to consider the data offered by European Research Infrastructures in the social sciences domain, [2] as well as the body of LTC policy analysis developed by the European Commission[3]. Where applicable, proposals should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC), as well as data from relevant Data Spaces. Particular efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of this topic is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable).

Applicants aiming to address the implications of demographic changes on health and care systems should check in advance which areas are covered by the Transforming Health and Care Systems partnership and what research the partnership is performing to avoid a duplication of efforts or potential double funding.

Proposals should consider the involvement of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC)[4] based on its experience and with respect to the value it could bring in providing an effective interface between research activities and policymaking.

Proposals should integrate a gender-sensitive and intersectional approach to address the diverse long-term care policy needs of care-recipients and caregivers.

To maximise impact and avoid unnecessary duplication, proposals should envisage, as appropriate, cooperation with Horizon Europe projects such as the ones funded by the call topic HORIZON-CL2-2022-TRANSFORMATIONS-01-10, “Socio-economic effects of ageing societies”[5] and the HORIZON-CL2-2023-TRANSFORMATIONS-01-08 call topic entitled “Integrated care solutions leading to better quality, person-centred long-term[6].

[1] See https://www.thcspartnership.eu/ or https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101095654

[2] https://ri-portfolio.esfri.eu/ri-portfolio/table/

[3] https://employment-social-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies-and-activities/social-protection-social-inclusion/social-protection/long-term-care_en

[4] DG JRC research activity on long-term care and demography aims to analyse the prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases (such as dementia) and implication on LTC demand and analysis of household composition (family structure changes) and implications on LTC provision.

[5] https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/horizon-cl2-2022-transformations-01-10

[6] https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/horizon-cl2-2023-transformations-01-08