Improving climate and weather models for Africa

Expected Outcome

Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Improved quality and performance of weather and climate models over Africa, tailored to the continent’s needs, enabling more effective adaptation actions and disaster risk response strategies, and informing the implementation of the international dimension of the EU Adaptation and Preparedness Union Strategies, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Nairobi Declaration and the Team Europe Initiative on Adaptation and Resilience in Africa[1];
• Enhanced provision of weather predictions and climate projections that enable African communities to more effectively respond to the escalating impacts of climate change, contributing to the objectives of the AU-EU Partnership on Climate Change and Sustainable Energy[2];
• African climate research is bolstered, supporting the development of the next generation of climate scientists. There is reduced reliance on external expertise, increased representation of African science and scientists in international bodies such as the IPCC and UNFCCC, and enhanced African contribution to global climate initiatives such as CMIP, CORDEX and ISIMIP.

Scope

Africa is among the regions most severely affected by climate change, mostly due to high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. While significant advancements in global weather and climate science have transformed resilience efforts elsewhere, their benefits in Africa remain to be harnessed, to unlock the continent’s ability to address climate challenges more effectively.

Actions should address critical knowledge gaps for improving weather and climate modelling for Africa in the context of changing climate, with focus on the understanding and representation of weather and climate dynamics in Africa at regional, interregional or continental scale. They should enhance models’ predictive skill and reduce uncertainties in key areas such as rainfall and extreme weather events. Actions should harness observational data to advance process-based understanding and model performance across various Earth System components (e.g. land, ocean, atmosphere). This includes improving data collection, assimilation and quality assurance practices, integration of local and rescued historical data to provide high-quality inputs for models. Actions are encouraged to leverage digital technologies, including AI/ML techniques, tools, and models as well as advances in high performance computing to achieve the topic’s goals.

The research should be performed in close cooperation and co-creation between African and European teams in a way to ensure relevance, acceptance and co-ownership of solutions by African stakeholders. Actions are also expected to contribute to local capacity-building and knowledge exchange to support competence growth and equip African researchers with the data, tools and expertise necessary to sustain future progress. Strong partnerships should be established between relevant institutions in both regions such as universities, research bodies, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and African Regional Climate Centers (RCCs)[3] to enable mutual learning and collaborations.

Synergies and complementarity should be sought with other relevant EU-supported initiatives on climate modelling and capacity development in Africa such as Regional Centres of Excellence related to the green transition[4]. Additionally, actions should facilitate access of African researchers to cutting-edge European research infrastructures including supercomputing assets and data repositories to strengthen institutional and regional expertise and capacity.

All projects funded under this topic are strongly encouraged to collaborate and envisage clustering activities together and with other relevant projects in and outside of Horizon Europe.

[1] Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience - Africa | Capacity4dev

[2] https://research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/strategy/strategy-research-and-innovation/europe-world/international-cooperation/regional-dialogues-and-international-organisations/eu-africa-cooperation/partnership-climate-change-and-sustainable-energy-ccse_en

[3] Africa Regional Climate Centers | AFRI-RES

[4] About the Project | Africa Knowledge Platform